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Mixed hidden Markov quantile regression models for longitudinal data with possibly incomplete sequences

机译:具有可能不完整序列的纵向数据的混合隐马尔可夫分位数回归模型

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摘要

Quantile regression provides a detailed and robust picture of the distribution of a response variable, conditional on a set of observed covariates. Recently, it has be been extended to the analysis of longitudinal continuous outcomes using either time-constant or time-varying random parameters. However, in real-life data, we frequently observe both temporal shocks in the overall trend and individual-specific heterogeneity in model parameters. A benchmark dataset on HIV progression gives a clear example. Here, the evolution of the CD4 log counts exhibits both sudden temporal changes in the overall trend and heterogeneity in the effect of the time since seroconversion on the response dynamics. To accommodate such situations, we propose a quantile regression model, where time-varying and time-constant random coefficients are jointly considered. Since observed data may be incomplete due to early drop-out, we also extend the proposed model in a pattern mixture perspective. We assess the performance of the proposals via a large-scale simulation study and the analysis of the CD4 count data.
机译:分位数回归以一组观察到的协变量为条件,提供了响应变量分布的详细而可靠的描述。最近,它已扩展到使用时间常数或时变随机参数分析纵向连续结果。但是,在实际数据中,我们经常观察总体趋势中的时间冲击和模型参数中的特定于个体的异质性。关于艾滋病毒进展的基准数据集给出了一个明确的例子。在此,CD4对数计数的演变既显示了总体趋势的突然时间变化,也显示了自血清转化对反应动力学以来的时间影响中的异质性。为了适应这种情况,我们提出了分位数回归模型,其中同时考虑了时变和时间常数随机系数。由于观察到的数据可能由于早期辍学而不完整,因此我们也从模式混合的角度扩展了提出的模型。我们通过大规模的模拟研究和CD4计数数据的分析来评估提案的效果。

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